SpartanNash Co (SpartanNash Co) Predictability Rank

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What is SpartanNash Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SpartanNash Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SpartanNash Co (SpartanNash Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » SpartanNash Co (NAS:SPTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SRJ:Germany

Address

850 76th Street SW, P.O. Box 8700, Grand Rapids, MI, USA, 49518-8700

Website

https://www.spartannash.com

SpartanNash Co is a food solutions company that delivers the ingredients for a better life. The company operates in two segments: Retail and Wholesale. The Company's Wholesale segment uses a multi-channel sales approach to distribute national brand and private brand products to independent retailers, national accounts, food service distributors, e-commerce providers, and the Company's corporate owned retail stores. Majority of the revenue is earned from wholesale segment.

Executives

Kerrie D. Macpherson	director	5790 WIDEWATERS PARKWAY, C/O COMMUNITY BANK SYSTEM INC., DEWITT NY 13214
William R Voss	director	C/O SPARTANNASH, 850 76TH SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Hawthorne L. Proctor	director	C/O SPARTANNASH, 850 76TH SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Bennett John Morgan	officer: SVP and Chief Mdsing Officer	850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Matthew Mannelly	director	C/O SPARTANNASH, 850 76TH SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Yvonne Trupiano	officer: Sr. VP Chief HR Officer	850 76TH STREET SW, PO BOX 8700, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Pamela Puryear	director	253 DOLPHIN COVE QUAY, STAMFORD CT 06902
Julien Mininberg	director	ONE HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Jaymin B Patel	director	C/O GTECH HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 55 TECHNOLOGY WAY, WEST GREENWICH RI 02817
Frank Gambino	director	C/O 850 - 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Ileana Mcalary	officer: SVP CLO and Secretary	850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Kathleen M Mahoney	officer: Exec VP Gen Counsel and Secy	C/O SPARTANNASH, 850 76TH SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Robert Todd Riksen	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Masiar Tayebi	officer: E.V.P., Chief Strategy Officer	850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
David J Petko	officer: Senior VP Supply Chain	850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518