Spero Therapeutics (Spero Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Spero Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spero Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spero Therapeutics (Spero Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Spero Therapeutics Inc (NAS:SPRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2HA:Germany

Address

675 Massachusetts Avenue, 14th Floor, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.sperotherapeutics.com

Spero Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm. It focuses on identifying, developing and commercializing novel treatments for MDR (Multi-drug-resistant) bacterial infections and rare diseases. The company's product candidate, tebipenem pivoxil hydrobromide or tebipenem HBr, is designed to be an oral carbapenem-class antibiotic for use in adults to treat MDR Gram-negative infections. It is also developing SPR720, a novel oral antibiotic designed for the treatment of a rare, orphan disease caused by pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial infections, or NTM disease. Besides, it is also focused on SPR206, a next-generation polymyxin investigational product candidate, being developed as an IV-administered medicine to treat MDR Gram-negative infections in the hospital.

Executives

Kamal Hamed	officer: Chief Medical Officer	675 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Sath Shukla	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BUILDING #34, BOSTON MA 02129
Timothy Keutzer	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 675 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Ankit Mahadevia	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 675 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Tamara L Joseph	officer: Chief Legal Officer	32 GARRISON STREET, APT 50-103, BOSTON MA 02116
Aquilo Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE D4900, BUILDING D, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Kathleen Tregoning	director	C/O CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 131 DARTMOUTH STREET SUITE 502, BOSTON MA 02116
Cristina Larkin	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 675 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Aquilo Capital, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE D4900, BUILDING D, THE PRESIDIO, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Scott Thomas Jackson	director	303B COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Stephen J. Dipalma	officer: Interim CFO	C/O SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 675 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Cynthia Smith	director	508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019
Pottage John C Jr	director	ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS, 300 GEORGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Plc Glaxosmithkline	10 percent owner	980 GREAT WEST ROAD, BRENTFORD MIDDLESEX X0 TW8 9GS
Joel Sendek	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 675 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139