Virgin Galactic Holdings (Virgin Galactic Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Virgin Galactic Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Virgin Galactic Holdings (Virgin Galactic Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPCE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPCE:Mexico 0QL:Germany

Address

1700 Flight Way, Tustin, CA, USA, 92782

Website

https://www.virgingalactic.com

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is a United States-based vertically integrated aerospace company pioneering human spaceflight for private individuals & researchers, and it also manufactures advanced air and space vehicles. Using its technologies, it is developing a spaceflight system designed to offer its customers a unique, multi-day, and transformative experience. This culminates in a spaceflight that includes views of Earth from space and several minutes of weightlessness that will launch from Spaceport America, New Mexico.

Executives

Arcangeli Henio R Jr	director	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 1700 FLIGHT WAY, TUSTIN CA 92782
Diana S. Strandberg	director	1700 FLIGHT WAY, TUSTIN CA 92782
Raymond E Mabus	director	C/O DANA INCORPORATED, 3939 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, MAUMEE OH 43537
Aparna Chitale	officer: See Remarks	1700 FLIGHT WAY, TUSTIN CA 92782
Sarah E Kim	officer: See Remarks	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 1700 FLIGHT WAY, TUSTIN CA 92782
Douglas T Ahrens	officer: See Remarks	215 MOFFETT PARK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Michael A Colglazier	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 166 NORTH ROADRUNNER PARKWAY, SUITE 1C, LAS CRUCES NM 88011
Alistair Burns	officer: See Remarks	1700 FLIGHT WAY, TUSTIN CA 92782
Michelle Kley	officer: See Remarks	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 166 NORTH ROADRUNNER PARKWAY, SUITE 1C, LAS CRUCES NM 88011
Wanda A Sigur	director	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 166 NORTH ROADRUNNER PARKWAY, SUITE 1C, LAS CRUCES NM 88011
Virgin Investments Ltd	10 percent owner	LA MOTTE CHAMBERS, ST HELIER Y9 X0 JE1 1BJ
Craig S Kreeger	director	C/O VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC., 166 NORTH ROADRUNNER PARKWAY 1C, LAS CRUCES NM 88011
Tina W Jonas	director	C/O PASSUR AEROSPACE, INC, ONE LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 1900, STAMFORD CT 06901
Swaminathan B. Lyer	officer: See Remarks	166 NORTH ROADRUNNER PARKWAY, SUITE 1C, LAS CRUCES NM 88011
Chamath Palihapitiya	director, 10 percent owner	THE SOCIAL-CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.L.C., 506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025