Sovos Brands (Sovos Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Sovos Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sovos Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sovos Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sovos Brands (Sovos Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Sovos Brands Inc (NAS:SOVO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

168 Centennial Parkway, Suite 200, Louisville, CO, USA, 80027

Website

https://www.sovosbrands.com

Sovos Brands Inc is a food company in the United States. Its brands are Rao's, noosa, Birch Benders, and Michael Angelo's. Its Rao's products include our Rao's Homemade pasta sauces (including tomato-based sauces, Alfredo sauces, and Pesto sauces), pizza sauces, and dry pasta; Rao's Homestyle meat-based pasta sauces; and Rao's Made for Home frozen entrees and soups.

Executives

Todd R Lachman	director, officer: President and CEO
Isobel A Jones	officer: CLO, GC and Secretary	C/O DIAMOND FOODS, INC., 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Christopher W. Hall	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Katie Gvazdinskas	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Kirk A. Jensen	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Risa Cretella	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Lisa Y. O'driscoll	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Yuri Hermida	officer: Chief Growth Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Advent International Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199
Advent International Corp/ma	10 percent owner	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199
Jefferson M Case	director	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199
Neha Mathur	director	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Robert L Graves	director	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Wendy K. Behr	officer: Chief R&D Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Priscilla Tuan	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O SOVOS BRANDS, INC., 168 CENTENNIAL PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE CO 80027