StoneX Group (StoneX Group) Predictability Rank

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What is StoneX Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

StoneX Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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StoneX Group (StoneX Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » StoneX Group Inc (NAS:SNEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

I4F:Germany

Address

230 Park Avenue, 10th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10169

Website

https://www.stonex.com

StoneX Group Inc is a Global brokerage and financial services firm. Its service offerings are execution, OTC / Market-Making, advisory services, Global payment solutions, market intelligence, Physical Trading and clearing services. The firm operates in four segments: commercial, Institutional, Retail, and Global Payments. Its customers include governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and commercial banks, brokers, institutional investors, and investment banks. The company operates in United States, South America, Europe, Middle East and Asia and other countries, out of which majority revenue is generates from Middle East and Asia Region.

Executives

Scott J Branch	director, officer: COO	220 E CENTRAL PARKWAY, STE 2060, ATTAMONTE SPRINGS FL 32701
Eric Parthemore	director	1251 NW BRIARCLIFF PARKWAY, SUITE 800, KANSAS CITY MO 64116
Philip Andrew Smith	other: CEO - subsidiary entity	708 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 1500, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark Lowry Maurer	other: CEO - subsidiary entity	230 SOUTH LASALLE, SUITE 10-500, CHICAGO IL 60604
John Moore Fowler	director	2 NORTHWEST WAY, BRONXVILLE NY 10708
Charles M Lyon	officer: CEO - subsidiary entity	329 PARK AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 350, WINTER PARK FL 32789
John Radziwill	director, officer: Chairman of the Board
Glenn Henry Stevens	other: CEO - subsidiary entity	550 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 210, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Aaron Schroeder	officer: Group Controller	1251 NW BRIARCLIFF PARKWAY, SUITE 800, KANSAS CITY MO 64116
William J Dunaway	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1251 NW BRIARCLIFF PARKWAY, SUITE 800, KANSAS CITY MO 64116
Sean Michael Oconnor	director, officer: CEO	220 E. CENTRAL PARKWAY, SUITE 2060, ALTEMONTE SPRINGS FL 32701
Xuong Nguyen	other: COO of Affiliates	230 SOUTH LASALLE, SUITE 10-500, CHICAGO IL 60604
Abigail H Perkins	officer: Chief Information Officer	230 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10169
Diego Rotsztain	officer: Chief Governance/Legal Officer	135 US HIGHWAY 202/206, SUITE 11, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Dhamu R. Thamodaran	director	200 COMMERCE STREET, SMITHFIELD VA 23430