Summit Therapeutics (Summit Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Summit Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Summit Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Summit Therapeutics (Summit Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Summit Therapeutics Inc (NAS:SMMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2882 Sand Hill Road, Suite 106, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025

Website

https://www.smmttx.com

Summit Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel antibiotics for serious infectious diseases. Its lead CDI (Clostridiodes difficile infection) product candidate is ridinilazole, an orally administered small molecule antibiotic. It has two geographical segments: the United States and the United Kingdom.

Executives

Ankur Dhingra	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CAREDX, INC., 1 TOWER PLACE, 9TH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Maky Zanganeh	director	51 ADAM WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027
Manmeet Singh Soni	director	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Robert W Duggan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	611 SOUTH FORT HARRISON AVE, SUITE 306, CLEARWATER FL 33756
Yu Xia	director	6 SHENNONG ROAD, TORCH DEVELOPMENT ZONE, ZHONGSHAN, GUANGDONG F4 528437
Robert F. Booth	director	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Alessandra Cesano	director	700 BALTIC CIRCLE, SUITE 716, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Urte Gayko	director	C/O PARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Kenneth A Clark	director	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Jeffrey R Maranian	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Luhua Wang	director	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
David Jonathan Powell	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Camilla Graham	officer: Chief Clinical Affairs Officer	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ventzislav Stefanov	director, officer: See Remarks	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ujwala Mahatme	director	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142