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Skillz (Skillz) Predictability Rank


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What is Skillz Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skillz Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Skillz Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Skillz (Skillz) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Skillz Inc (NYSE:SKLZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GMGI BHAT SNAL NCTY GIGM GDC MSGM MGAM NFTG DROR ATVI ATVI NTES TSE:7974 EA TTWO RBLX TSE:3659 TSE:9766 TSE:9697
Traded in Other Exchanges
SKLZ:Mexico
Address
P.O. Box 445, San francisco, CA, USA, 94104
Website
https://www.skillz.com
Skillz Inc is a mobile game development company. It is engaged in re-inventing competitive mobile gaming and thereby expanding the mobile gaming market.
Executives
Jason Roswig officer: President & CFO PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Andrew Paradise director, officer: Chief Executive Officer SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445
Andrew Dahlinghaus officer: General Counsel P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kevin Chessen director 1061 MARKET STREET, 6TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Elly Ryu officer: Controller/Head of Accounting 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Alvin Lobo officer: Chief Financial Officer P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Alexander Mandel director 1061 MARKET STREET, 6TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Stanley Mbugua officer: Chief Accounting Officer SKILLZ INC, PO BOX 455, SAN FRAN CA 94104
Seth Schorr director PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Henry M. Hoffman director PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Shari Glazer director PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Harry Sloan director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman 1450 2ND STREET, SUITE 247, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Jerome Leon Bruckheimer director PHILPOTT MEEKS, 10030 VENTURA BOULEVARD, SUITE 380, ENCINO CA 91436
Christopher S Gaffney director C/O GREAT HILL PARTNERS, L.P., 200 CLARENDON STREET, 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Casey Chafkin director, officer: Chief Revenue Officer SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445