GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » SITE Centers Corp (NYSE:SITC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

SITE Centers (SITE Centers) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is SITE Centers Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SITE Centers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SITE Centers Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SITE Centers's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SITE Centers (SITE Centers) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » SITE Centers Corp (NYSE:SITC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SKT MAC FCPT UE AKR IVT PECO CMRF ROIC GTY SPG O KIM XPAR:URW HKSE:00823 REG ASX:SCG SGX:C38U FRT XPAR:LI
Traded in Other Exchanges
SITCpA.PFD:USA DDR2:Germany
Address
3300 Enterprise Parkway, Beachwood, OH, USA, 44122
Website
https://www.sitecenters.com
SITE Centers Corp is a United States-based self-administered and self-managed REIT that operates as a fully integrated real estate company. The company is the owner and manager of open-air shopping centers that provide a compelling shopping experience and merchandise mix for retail partners and consumers.
Executives
John M Cattonar officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
David R Lukes director, officer: President & CEO 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Christa A Vesy officer: Sr. V.P. & Chief Acct. Officer 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Fennerty Conor officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer 3300 ENTERPRISE PKWY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Alexander Otto director, 10 percent owner C/O KG CURA VERMOGENSVERWALTUNG G.M.B.H., WANDSBEKER STR. 3-7, HAMBURG 2M 22179
Katharina Otto-bernstein 10 percent owner C/O KG CURA VERMOGENSVERWALTUNG G.M.B.H., WANDSBEKER STR. 3-7, HAMBURG 2M 22179
Victor B Macfarlane director 151 EXECUTIVE PARK BLVD, BUILDING 2, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94134
Dawn M. Sweeney director 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Michael Makinen officer: EVP & COO 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Terrance R Ahern director 1500 W 3RD ST, STE 410, CLEVELAND OH 44113
Thomas Finne director C/O KG CURA VERMOGENSVERWALTUNG G.M.B.H., WANDSBEKER STR. 3-7, HAMBURG 2M 22179
Linda B. Abraham director 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Scott D Roulston director 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, CLEVELAND OH 44122
Matthew Louis Ostrower officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer 3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Robert H Gidel director 677 N WASHINGTON BLVD, SARASOTA FL 34236