Shineco (Shineco) Predictability Rank

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What is Shineco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shineco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Shineco (Shineco) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Shineco Inc (NAS:SISI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

T1, South Tower, Jiazhaoye Square, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100022

Website

http://www.biosisi.com

Shineco Inc aims to care for a healthy life and improve the quality of life by providing safe, efficient, and high-quality health products and services to society. The company has researched and developed over 33 vitro diagnostic reagents and related medical devices to date, and it also produces and sells healthy and nutritious food.

Executives

Aamir Ali Quraishi	director	112 EVELYN AVENUE, RUISLIP, LONDON X0 HA4 8AQ
Shanchun Huang	10 percent owner	PUDONG BUILDING, 2ND FLOOR,, JIULONG AVENUE, LONGWEN DISTRICT, ZHANGZHOU F4 363000
Xiqiao Liu	director, officer: COO	ROOM 504, UNIT1, BUILDING 7, HONGRENJIAY, MAJUQIAO, TONGZHOU DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101149
Hu Li	director	ROOM 1001, BUILDING T5, DAZU SQUARE, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Jennifer Zhan	director, officer: CEO & Executive Director	ROOM 3106, BUILDING B,, JIANWAI SOHO, CHAOYANG DISTRICT,, BEIJING CITY F4 100022
Minye Wang	director	BUILDING 23, HAI YUE HUA YUAN, KUNMING F4 530000
Lei Gao	director	ROOM 806, WANSHOU HOTEL, NO. A12 WANSHOU ROAD, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100017
Ou Yang	officer: Chief Executive Officer	BUILDING NO. 5, 8 WORKERS SPORTS COMPLEX NORTH ROAD, BEIJING F4 100009
Hua Yang	director	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Yuying Zhang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chair of the Board, CEO	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Leiger Yongmin Yang	director	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Jiping Chen	director, 10 percent owner	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Sai Sam Wang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Shujuan Ji	director	2ND FLOOR, WANYUAN BUSINESS CENTER, 10 HONGDA RD, YIZHUANG, DAXING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100176
Weixing Yin	director	ROOM 3106, BUILDING B, 39 E. 3RD RING, MIDDLE RD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 1000022