Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co (SHSE:603116) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co (SHSE:603116) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co Ltd (SHSE:603116) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Wangjiatun Road, Dongpu Industrial Zone, Yubei Town, Yongjia County, Zhejiang, Wenzhou, CHN, 325102

Website

http://www.cnhqt.com

Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co Ltd is engaged in research and development, production and sale of Red Dragonfly brand shoes and leather goods, clothing and other industry. The company main products include men's and women's shoes, children's shoes and apparels, leather belts, wallets, and leather handbags, among others.

Executives

Qian Jin Bo	Director
Wang Jian Bin	Director
Zhang Shao Bin	Directors, senior managers
Xue Xia	senior management
Fang Xuan Ping	Director
Chen Ming Hai	Director
Xu Zhi Hong	senior management
Jin Yin Kuan	Director
Dong Zhong Wu	senior management
Xu Wei	senior management
Qian Xiu Fen	senior management
Chen Man Cang	Supervisors

Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co (SHSE:603116) Headlines

No Headlines