What is Sagimet Biosciences Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sagimet Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sagimet Biosciences (Sagimet Biosciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
155 Bovet Road, Suite 303, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94402
Sagimet Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a portfolio of in-house discovered, selective fatty acid synthase (FASN) inhibitors for the treatment of diseases that result from dysfunctional lipid metabolism pathways. Its lead drug candidate, denifanstat, is an oral, once-daily pill and selective FASN inhibitor in development for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
Executives
| David Happel |
director, officer: President & CEO |
7 HAMILTON LANDING, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94949 |
| New Enterprise Associates 13 Lp |
10 percent owner |
1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Beth C Seidenberg |
director |
|
| Nea 13 Gp, Ltd |
10 percent owner |
1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Elizabeth Rozek |
officer: General Counsel and CCO |
SAGIMET BIOSCIENCES INC., 155 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 303, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| George Kemble |
director |
SAGIMET BIOSCIENCES INC., 155 BOVET RD., STE. 303, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Jinzi Jason Wu |
director |
SAGIMET BIOSCIENCES INC., 155 BOVET RD., SUITE 303, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Dennis Hom |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ACHAOGEN, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 371, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Kpcb Pbd Associates, Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O KLEINER PERKINS CAUFIELD & BYERS, 2750 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Kpcb Pandemic & Bio Defense Fund Llc |
10 percent owner |
2750 SAND HILL RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Eduardo Bruno Martins |
director |
350 CAMBRIDGE AVE, SUITE 350, PALO ALTO CA 94306 |
| Nea Partners 13, Limited Partnership |
10 percent owner |
1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Elizabeth A Grammer |
director |
78TH FOURTH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Anthony M Rimac |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2200 POWELL ST, STE 220, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Patrick J Kerins |
10 percent owner |
|
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