GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Safe & Green Development Corp (NAS:SGD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Safe & Green Development (Safe & Green Development) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is Safe & Green Development Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Safe & Green Development Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Safe & Green Development Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Safe & Green Development's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Safe & Green Development (Safe & Green Development) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Safe & Green Development Corp (NAS:SGD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
AEI ILAL TPHS XIN HCDI SRRE FHRT KANP HKSE:00016 HKSE:01109 HKSE:00688 TSE:1925 SHSE:600048 HKSE:01113 SZSE:000002 BOM:532868 DFM:EMAAR SZSE:001979 ADX:ALDAR HKSE:00960
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
990 Biscayne Blvd, Suite 501, Office 12, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Website
https://www.sgdevco.com
Safe & Green Development Corp is a real estate development company that focuses on the development of sites using purpose built, prefabricated modules built from both wood & steel, sourced from one of Safe & Green Holdings factories.
Executives
Paul M. Galvin director C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 400 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 16C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Christopher Melton director C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 400 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 16C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Yaniv Blumenfeld director C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 195 MONTAGUE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201
J. Scott Magrane director C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 400 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 16C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jeffrey C. Tweedy director C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
David Roberto Villarreal director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 17 STATE STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Safe & Green Holdings Corp. director 195 MONTAGUE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Peter G. Demaria director 990 BISCAYNE BLVD., #501, OFFICE 12, MIAMI FL 33132
Alyssa L. Richardson director 990 BISCAYNE BLVD., #501, OFFICE 12, MIAMI FL 33132
Nicolai Ayrton Brune officer: Chief Financial Officer 990 BISCAYNE BLVD., #501, OFFICE 12, MIAMI FL 33132