Stitch Fix (Stitch Fix) Predictability Rank

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What is Stitch Fix Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stitch Fix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Stitch Fix (Stitch Fix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Stitch Fix Inc (NAS:SFIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SYJ:Germany

Address

1 Montgomery Street, Suite 1100, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104

Website

https://www.stitchfix.com

Stitch Fix Inc offers personal style services for men and women. The company engages in delivering one-to-one personalization to clients through the combination of data science and human judgment. It provides a shipment service called A FIX where the stylist's hand selects items from several merchandise with analysis of client and merchandise data to provide a personalized shipment of apparel, shoes, and accessories suited to the client's needs. The company offers products across categories, brands, product types, and price points including Women's, Petite, Maternity, Men's, and Plus. It also offers various product types, including denim, dresses, blouses, skirts, shoes, jewelry, and handbags, and sells merchandise across various ranges of price points.

Executives

Casey O'connor	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Sarah Barkema	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Matt Baer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
David Aufderhaar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kofi Owusu Amoo-gottfried	director	C/O VITAL FARMS, INC., 3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE C100, AUSTIN TX 78704
J William Gurley	director, 10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sachin Dhawan	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BLACKHAWK NETWORK HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Working Capital Advisors (uk) Ltd.	10 percent owner	QUERIPEL HOUSE, UNIT 2, 1 DUKE OF YORK SQUARE, LONDON X0 SW3 4LY
Kirsten A. Lynch	director	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Mikkel Svane	director	C/O ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Neal Mohan	director	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Elizabeth Goodman Williams	director	C/O VIANT TECHNOLOGY INC., 2722 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92612
Katrina Lake	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	111 W. WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 2100, CHICAGO IL 60602
Mike C. Smith	officer: Chief Operating Officer	STITCH FIX, INC., ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Dan Jedda	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104