Seven Hills Realty Trust (Seven Hills Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Seven Hills Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seven Hills Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Seven Hills Realty Trust (Seven Hills Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Seven Hills Realty Trust (NAS:SEVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

SACH AAIC AJX MITT LFT AOMR GPMT EARN CHMI ACR NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

255 Washington Street, Two Newton Place, Suite 300, Newton, MA, USA, 02458

Website

https://www.rmrfunds.com

Seven Hills Realty Trust, formerly RMR Mortgage Trust is a real estate investment trust. The company is engaged in the business of originating and investing in first mortgage whole loans secured by the middle market and transitional commercial real estate. Its non-fundamental primary objective is to balance capital preservation by generating risk-adjusted returns.

Executives

Barbara D Gilmore	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Tiffany R Sy	officer: CFO and Treasurer	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 225 WASHINGTON STREET SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Thomas J. Lorenzini	officer: President	TREMONT MORTGAGE TRUST, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Adam D. Portnoy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President of Fund, other: Dir.,Pres.,Owner of Advisor	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Tremont Realty Capital Llc	10 percent owner	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Rmr Group Inc.	10 percent owner	TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Rmr Group Llc	10 percent owner	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Abp Trust	10 percent owner	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Phyllis M. Hollis	director	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Matthew P. Jordan	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP INC., TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Joseph Morea	director	C/O REIT MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
William A. Lamkin	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Gerald Douglas Lanois	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Brian E. Donley	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Asst. Sect.	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC,, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASHINGTON ST., NEWTON MA 02458
Barry M. Portnoy	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director,VP & Owner of Advisor	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458