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SDCL EDGE Acquisition (SDCL EDGE Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is SDCL EDGE Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SDCL EDGE Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SDCL EDGE Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SDCL EDGE Acquisition (SDCL EDGE Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » SDCL EDGE Acquisition Corp (NYSE:SEDA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PRLH LOCC CDAQ BOCN SKGR PLAO APTM APCA MNTN JWSM PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
60 East 42nd Street, Suite 1100, New York, NY, USA, 10165
Website
https://www.sdcledge.com
SDCL EDGE Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Karl E. Olsoni director C/O SDCL EDGE ACQUISITION CORP, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Guy Hands 10 percent owner OLD BANK CHAMBERS, LA GRANDE RUE, ST MARTIN'S Y7 GY4 6RT
Seaside Holdings (nominee) Ltd 10 percent owner PO BOX 286, 2ND FLOOR, TRAFALGAR COURT, LES BANQUES, ST PETER PORT Y7 GY1 4LY
Sustainable Investors Fund, Lp 10 percent owner 250 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 300, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Sif Partners, Llc 10 percent owner 250 UNIVERSITY AVE, SUITE 300, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Steven J Gilbert director 540 MADISON AVE, 40TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
William V. Kriegel director 330 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sdcl Edge Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Sdcl Edge Acquisition Corp 10 percent owner PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Machado Fernandes Ana Maria director PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Michael Naylor director PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Lolita Jackson director PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Edward Wilson Davis officer: CFO PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Jonathan Maxwell director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Michael Trattner Feldman officer: Co-CEO PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104