What is 374Water Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
374Water Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
374Water (374Water) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
701 W Main Street, Suite 410, Durham, NC, USA, 27701
374Water Inc offers a technology that transforms wet wastes such as sewage sludge, biosolids, food waste, hazardous and non-hazardous waste, and forever chemicals (e.g., PFAS) into recoverable resources by focusing on waste as a valuable resource for water, energy, and minerals. The business activities of the company include manufacturing processes and waste recycling and treatment processes, which currently involve the use, treatment, storage, transfer, handling and/or disposal of hazardous materials, chemicals and wastes.
Executives
| Jeffrey Mark Quick |
officer: Interim CEO |
1035 PEARL ST., SUITE 403, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Buddie J Penn |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Deanna Rene Estes |
director |
525 3RD STREET, SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97034 |
| James Michael Vanderhider |
director |
306 MAGNOLIA HEIGHTS LANE, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Yizhaq Polad |
director |
HAGANIM 17, RAMAT HASHARON L3 4704318 |
| Israel David Abitbol |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
12505 BOONE HALL COURT, RALEIGH NC 27614 |
| Terry Merrell |
director |
3710 SHANNON RD, SUITE 51877, DURHAM NC 27717 |
| Marc Deshusses |
director, 10 percent owner |
3710 SHANNON ROAD, SUITE 51877, DURHAM NC 27717 |
| Yaacov Nagar |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3710 SHANNON ROAD, SUITE 51877, DURHAM NC 27717 |
| Fred Barker |
director, officer: Vice President and Secretary |
21615 NORTH SECOND AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027 |
| John L Hofmann |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
420 S DIXIE HIGHWAY, SUITE 4B, CORAL GABLES FL 33146 |
| Bryce Allan Johnson |
director, officer: Chief Operating Officer |
7595 E GRAY ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| George Konrad |
director, officer: President and Treasurer |
21615 NORTH SECOND AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027 |
| Richard H Davis |
director |
10300 SUNSET DRIVE, SUITE 380, MIAMI FL 33173 |
| Mckee Richard G Jr |
director |
2775 CRAYTON ROAD, NAPLES FL 34103 |
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