SciPlay (SciPlay) Predictability Rank

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What is SciPlay Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SciPlay Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SciPlay Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SciPlay (SciPlay) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » SciPlay Corp (NAS:SCPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6601 Bermuda Road, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89119

Website

https://www.sciplay.com

SciPlay Corp develops, markets, and operates a portfolio of social games played on various mobile and web platforms, including Jackpot Party Casino, Quick Hit Slots, Gold Fish Casino, Hot Shot Casino, Bingo Showdown, MONOPOLY Slots, and 88 Fortunes Slots and a solitaire social game targeted toward casual game players, among others. Its games are available in various formats. The company operates in one segment with one business activity, developing and monetizing social games.

Executives

Gerald D. Cohen	director	C/O SCIPLAY CORP, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Daniel Oquinn	officer: Interim CFO	C/O SCIPLAY CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Plc Barclays	10 percent owner	1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP
James Bombassei	officer: EVP, CFO and Secretary	C/O SCIPLAY CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Antonia Korsanos	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
April Henry	director	C/O SCIENCE STRATEGIC ACQUISITION CORP., 1447 2ND STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Charles J. Prober	director	C/O SCIPLAY CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
James Constance P.	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Nicholas Earl	director	C/O SCIPLAY CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Michael Marchetti	director	C/O SCIPLAY CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Thompson William C Jr	director	6650 EL CAMINO ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Michael Winterscheidt	officer: Chief Accounting Officer & Sec	C/O SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Barry L Cottle	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
M. Mendel Pinson	director	C/O SCIPLAY CORP, 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Frances F Townsend	director	C/O BAKER BOTTS LLP, THE WARNER, 1299 PENNSYLVANIA AVE., NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2400