Science Applications International (Science Applications International) Predictability Rank

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What is Science Applications International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Science Applications International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Science Applications International (Science Applications International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Science Applications International Corp (NAS:SAIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

85S:Germany

Address

12010 Sunset Hills Road, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.saic.com

Science Applications International Corp provides technical, engineering and enterprise IT services primarily to the U.S. government. Specifically, the company offers engineering, systems integration and information technology for large government projects and a broad range of services with an emphasis on higher-end technology services. The company's end-to-end enterprise IT offerings span the entire spectrum of customers' IT infrastructure.

Executives

Michelle A. O'hara	officer: EVP, CHRO	12010 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Donna S Morea	director	214 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Robert S. Genter	officer: EVP, CGM, Civilian Markets	12010 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Toni Townes-whitley	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8340 SPRINGHAVEN GARDEN LANE, MCLEAN, VA X1 22102
Dana S Deasy	director
Michael W. Larouche	officer: EVP, CGM, National Security	12010 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Katharina G. Mcfarland	director	4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Nazzic S Keene	officer: COO, Sector President	1710 SAIC DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
James Reagan	director	C/O DELTEK, 13880 DULLES CORNER LANE, HERNDON VA 20171
Carolyn B Handlon	director	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Hilary Hageman	officer: EVP General Counsel, Secretary	9333 BALBOA AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Timothy J Mayopoulos	director	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Steven G Mahon	officer: EVP General Counsel, Secretary	C/O MTS SYSTEMS CORPORATION, 14000 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Prabu Natarajan	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	12010 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Milford W Mcguirt	director	3400 CUMBERLAND BOULEVARD, ATLANTA GA 30339