Sanderson Farms (Sanderson Farms) Predictability Rank

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What is Sanderson Farms Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sanderson Farms Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sanderson Farms (Sanderson Farms) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Sanderson Farms Inc (NAS:SAFM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

127 Flynt Road, Laurel, MS, USA, 39443

Website

https://www.sandersonfarms.com

Sanderson Farms Inc is a dressed-chicken processor in the United States, producing and selling a variety of fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products to grocers, food-service operators, and distributors. Most revenue is generated in the Southeastern, Southwestern, Northeastern, and Western United States. The company's product portfolio consists of tray packs and large birds, catering to grocery and food-service customers. It sells chill-packed, ice-packed, bulk-packed, and frozen chicken in whole, cut-up, and boneless form under the brand name Sanderson Farms to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators in the United States.

Executives

Toni D Cooley	director	253 OLD JACKSON ROAD, MADISON MS 39110
Phil K Livingston	director	C/O SANDERSON FARM 225 N 13TH AVE LAUREL MS 39441-0998
John Bierbusse	director	3500 NORTH LAKE SHORE DRIVE #14A CHICAGO IL 60657
Lampkin Butts	director, officer: Vice President, Sales	C/O SANDERSON FARM 225 N 13TH AVE LAUREL MS 39441-0998
Robert C Khayat	director	PO BOX 1848 UNIVERSITY MS 38677
Sonia Perez	director	127 FLYNT ROAD, LAUREL MS 39443
Jones Gail Pittman	director	C/O SANDERSON FARMS INC PO BOX 988 225 N 13TH AVE LAUREL MS 39441-0988
Green Edith Kelly	director	3131 DEMOCRAT ROAD BLDG B206, MEMPHIS TN 38118
John David Barksdale	director	127 FLYNT ROAD, LAUREL MS 39443
Banks Fred L Jr	director	111 EAST CAPITOL STREET SUITE 600 JACKSON MS 39201-2122
Dianne Mooney	director	7449 ASHLAND LANE BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Suzanne T Mestayer	director	1100 POYDRAS STREET NEW ORLEANS LA 70163
D Michael Cockrell	director, officer: Treasurer & CFO	C/O SANDERSON FARM 225 N 13TH AVE LAUREL MS 39441-0998
Beverly W Hogan	director
Baker John H Iii	director	C/O SANDERSON FARMS INC 225 N 13TH AVE LAUREL MS 39441