RayzeBio (RayzeBio) Predictability Rank

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What is RayzeBio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RayzeBio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RayzeBio (RayzeBio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » RayzeBio inc (NAS:RYZB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5505 Morehouse Drive, Suite 300, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.rayzebio.com

RayzeBio inc is a company operating as vertically integrated radiopharmaceutical therapeutics company. The main objective of the company is defeating cancer with radiopharmaceutical medicines. It has a created a pipeline of multiple drug candidates, in therapeutic areas with significant market opportunities. They have a portfolio of potential RPT drug and development candidates that includes late-stage clinical programs, development programs and discovery programs.

Executives

Hauwermeiren Timothy Van	director	C/O ITEOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 139 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Viking Global Investors Lp	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Maha Katabi	director	SOFINNOVA INVESTMENTS, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Viking Global Opportunities Drawdown Gp Llc	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Viking Global Opportunities Drawdown Portfolio Gp Llc	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Arvind Kush	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O RAYZEBIO, INC., 5505 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (cayman) Ii L.p.	10 percent owner	280 CONGRESS STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Versant Ventures Vii Gp-gp, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Ventures Vii Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kenneth Song	director, officer: President and Chief Executive	C/O RAYZEBIO, INC., 5505 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Susan Moran	officer: Chief Medical Officer	1232 RICHARDSON AVE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, Ltd	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCI CA 94158
Venbio Global Strategic Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Redmile Biopharma Investments Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	LETTERMAN DIGITAL ARTS CENTER, ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129