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Redwood Trust (Redwood Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Redwood Trust Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Redwood Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Redwood Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Redwood Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Redwood Trust (Redwood Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Redwood Trust Inc (NYSE:RWT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BRSP DX ARR CIM TRTX KREF CMTG EFC FBRT MFA NLY AGNC STWD RITM BXMT ABR ARI LADR RC TWO
Traded in Other Exchanges
R2V:Germany
Address
One Belvedere Place, Suite 300, Mill Valley, CA, USA, 94941
Website
https://www.redwoodtrust.com
Redwood Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust focused on different areas of housing credit. The company operates in three segments: the Residential Mortgage Banking segment consists of a mortgage loan conduit that acquires residential loans from third-party originators for subsequent sale to whole loan buyers, securitization through SEMT (Sequoia) private-label securitization program, or transfer into its investment portfolio, Business Purpose Mortgage Banking segment consists of a platform that originates and acquires business purpose lending (BPL) loans for subsequent securitization, sale, or transfers into its investment portfolio, and Investment Portfolio segment consists of organic investments sourced through residential and business-purpose mortgage banking operations.
Executives
Doneene K Damon director 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Fred Matera officer: Chief Investment Officer 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, STE. 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Andrew P Stone officer: General Counsel 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, STE. 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Cochrane Collin Lee officer: Controller, Managing Director C/O REDWOOD TRUST, INC, 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Dashiell I Robinson director, officer: President 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Horvath D Debora director 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Sasha G. Macomber officer: Chief Human Resource Officer 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Brooke Carillo officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O REDWOOD TRUST, INC., 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Greg H Kubicek director 2601 NE 163RD COURT, VANCOUVER WA 98684
Armando Falcon director 1 BELVEDERE PLACE,SUITE 300, C/O REDWOOD TRUST, INC, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Faith A Schwartz director 1 BELVEDERE PLCAE, SUITE 300, C/O REDWOOD TRUST, INC., MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Georganne Proctor director 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
George W Madison director 1 BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Mariann H Byerwalter director C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY 920/2, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jeffrey T Pero director ONE BELVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941