Runway Growth Finance (Runway Growth Finance) Predictability Rank

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What is Runway Growth Finance Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Runway Growth Finance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Runway Growth Finance (Runway Growth Finance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Runway Growth Finance Corp (NAS:RWAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

205 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 4200, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601

Website

https://www.runwaygrowth.com

Runway Growth Finance Corp is a specialty finance company focused on providing senior secured loans to high-growth-potential companies in technology, life sciences, healthcare information and services, business services, select consumer services and products, and other high-growth industries.

Executives

Ocm Growth Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Thomas B. Raterman	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	C/O GSV GROWTH CREDIT FUND INC., 2925 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062
R David Spreng	director, officer: President and CEO	3800 FIRST BANK PL, P O BOX 357, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Gregory M Share	director	THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLZ, SUITE 3800, CHICAGO IL 60602
Gregory Louis Greifeld	officer: Acting Chief Executive Officer	C/O RUNWAY GROWTH FINANCE CORP., 205 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60601
Brookfield Multi-strategy Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	250 VESEY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Brookfield Asset Management Ulc	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY STREET SUITE 100, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 100, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Oaktree Opportunities Fund Xb Holdings (delaware), L.p.	10 percent owner	333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
John F. Engel	director	205 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60601
Brookfield Us Inc.	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Brookfield Multi-strategy Fund Gp Llc	10 percent owner	250 VESEY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Brookfield Bhs Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	395 NINTH AVENUE 52ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Brookfield Public Securities Group Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	250 VESEY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Brookfield Holdings Canada Inc.	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, BROOKFIELD PLACE, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3