Rumble (Rumble) Predictability Rank

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What is Rumble Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rumble Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rumble (Rumble) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Rumble Inc (NAS:RUM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

444 Gulf of Mexico Dr, Longboat Key, FL, USA, 34228

Website

https://www.rumble.com

Rumble Inc is a free-to-use video-sharing platform where users can watch, share, like, comment, and upload their own videos. Users can subscribe to channels to stay in touch with recent creator content and access video-on-demand uploaded, and live content streamed, by creators. Geographically, it generates a majority of its revenue from the US.

Executives

Ryan Milnes	director, 10 percent owner	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
David O Sacks	director	855 FRONT STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Paul T Cappuccio	director	TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Jay Ellis	officer: Gen.Counsel & Corp. Sectry	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Tyler Hughes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Wojciech Hlibowicki	officer: Chief Technology Officer	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Robert Arsov	director	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Brandon Alexandroff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Cfac Holdings Vi, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nancy Armstrong	director	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Ethan Fallang	director	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Claudio Ramolo	officer: Chief Content Officer	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Christopher Pavlovski	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	444 GULF OF MEXICO DR., LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Natasha Cornstein	director	CF ACQUISITION CORP. V, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven Bisgay	director	545 WASHINGTON BLVD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310