What is Regal Rexnord Predictability Rank?
3 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Regal Rexnord Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Regal Rexnord (Regal Rexnord) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 State Street, Beloit, WI, USA, 53511
Regal Rexnord Corp is in the engineering and manufacturing of industrial powertrain solutions, power transmission components, electric motors and electronic controls, air moving products and specialty electrical components and systems, serving customers around the world. The four operating segments include Commercial Systems, Industrial Systems, Climate Solutions and Motion Control Solutions.
Executives
| Theodore D Crandall |
director |
C/O ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC, 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204 |
| Timothy A. Dickson |
officer: SVP & Chief Digi & Info Ofc* |
111 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203 |
| John Avampato |
officer: VP & Chief Information Officer |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| Brooke Lang |
officer: EVP and President, PES* |
2090 BLAIRMONT DR, PITTSBURGH PA 15241 |
| Michael P Doss |
director |
814 LIVINGSTON COURT, MARIETTA GA 30067 |
| Alexander P Scarpelli |
officer: VP, Corp. Controller and CAO* |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| John C Kunze |
officer: Segment President* |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| Curtis W Stoelting |
director |
C/O RC2 CORPORATION, 1111 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 320, OAK BROOK IL 60523 |
| Christopher L Doerr |
director |
|
| Kevin J Zaba |
officer: President, Motion Control Sol. |
C/O REXNORD CORPORATION, P.O. BOX 2022, MILWAUKEE WI 53201 |
| Daniel J Klun |
officer: VP, Corporate Controller |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| Robin A Walker-lee |
director |
C/O TRW AUTOMOTIVE, 12001 TECH CENTER DRIVE, LIVONIA MI 48150 |
| Scott Douglas Brown |
officer: Segment President* |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| Dean A Foate |
director |
|
| Eric S Mcginnis |
officer: Segment President* |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
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