What is Rapid Micro Biosystems Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Rapid Micro Biosystems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Rapid Micro Biosystems (Rapid Micro Biosystems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1001 Pawtucket Boulevard West, Suite 280, Lowell, MA, USA, 01854
Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc is an life sciences technology company providing mission critical automation solutions to facilitate the efficient manufacturing and fast, safe release of healthcare products such as biologics, vaccines, cell and gene therapies, and sterile injectables. The company's flagship Growth Direct platform automates and modernizes the antiquated, manual microbial quality control (MQC) testing workflows used in the pharmaceutical manufacturing operations across the globe. It derives revenue from development, manufacturing, marketing and selling Systems and related LIMS connection software, consumables and services.
Executives
| Sean M Wirtjes |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O VARIAN, INC., 3120 HANSEN WAY, M/S D-083, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1030 |
| Spignesi Robert G. Jr. |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O RAPID MICRO BIOSYSTEMS, INC., 1001 PAWTUCKET BOULEVARD WEST, SUITE 280, LOWELL MA 01854 |
| Kirk Malloy |
director |
5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Kennedy Lewis Capital Partners Master Fund Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Klm Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
80 BROAD STREET, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Kennedy Lewis Capital Partners Master Fund Iii Lp |
10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Kennedy Lewis Gp Ii Llc |
10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Kennedy Lewis Gp Iii Llc |
10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Kennedy Lewis Investment Holdings Ii Llc |
10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Kennedy Lewis Investment Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
80 BROAD STREET, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Kennedy Lewis Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
225 LIBERTY STREET, SUITE 4210, NEW YORK NY 10281 |
| David Chene |
10 percent owner |
80 BROAD STREET, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Darren Richman |
10 percent owner |
80 BROAD STREET, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Inese Lowenstein |
director |
C/O RAPID MICRO BIOSYSTEMS INC, 1001 PAWTUCKET BOULEVARD WEST, SUITE 280, LOWELL MA 01854 |
| Richard A Keys |
officer: CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER |
C/O RAPID MICRO BIOSYSTEMS INC, 1001 PAWTUCKET BOULEVARD, SUITE 280, LOWELL MA 01854 |
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