Roku (ROKU) Predictability Rank

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What is Roku Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Roku Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Roku (ROKU) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Roku Inc (NAS:ROKU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ROKU:Mexico 1ROKU:Italy R35:Germany R1KU34:Brazil

Address

1155 Coleman Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110

Website

https://www.roku.com

Roku is the leading streaming platform in the U.S. by hours watched with 87.4 billion hours of content streamed in 2022. The firm's namesake operating system is used not only in Roku's own hardware but in cobranded TVs and soundbars from manufacturers like TCL, Onn, and Hisense. Roku generates revenue from advertising, distribution fees, hardware sales, OS licensing, and subscription sales.

Executives

Anthony J. Wood	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman BOD	C/O ROKU, INC., 150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Matthew C. Banks	officer: VP, Corp Controller & CAO	1155 COLEMAN AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Mustafa Ozgen	officer: President, Devices	150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Charles Collier	officer: President, Roku Media	1155 COLEMAN AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Gilbert Fuchsberg	officer: SVP, Corporate Development	1155 COLEMAN AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Stephen H Kay	officer: SVP General Counsel, Secretary	6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD., 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Gidon Katz	officer: President, Consumer Experience	1155 COLEMAN AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Dan Jedda	officer: CFO	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mai Fyfield	director	C/O ROKU, INC., 150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Ray A. Rothrock	director	3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Ravi Ahuja	director	C/O TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX, INC., 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jeffrey M Blackburn	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Gina Luna	director	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Laurie Simon Hodrick	director	C/O 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Jeff Hastings	director	AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876