Construction Partners (Construction Partners) Predictability Rank

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What is Construction Partners Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Construction Partners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Construction Partners (Construction Partners) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Construction Partners Inc (NAS:ROAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CQY:Germany

Address

290 Healthwest Drive, Suite 2, Dothan, AL, USA, 36303

Website

https://www.constructionpartners.net

Construction Partners Inc operates as an infrastructure and road construction company. It provides construction products and services to the public and private sectors. Its services cover the construction of highways, roads, bridges, airports, and commercial and residential sites. The company provides site development, paving, utility and drainage systems, as well as supplies hot mix asphalt.

Executives

Suntx Capital Ii Management Corp.	director, 10 percent owner	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
Craig Jennings	director, 10 percent owner	5204 LAKECREET CT., PLANO TX 75093
Mark R Matteson	director, 10 percent owner	290 HEALTHWEST DRIVE, SUITE 2, DOTHAN AL 36303
Suntx Cpi Capital Management Corp.	director, 10 percent owner	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
Fleming Ned N. Iv	other: Member of 10% owner group	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
Ned N. Fleming, Iv 2013 Trust	other: Member of 10% owner group	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
John L Harper	officer: Senior Vice President	170 EAST MAIN STREET, DOTHAN AL 36301
Noreen E Skelly	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Stefan L Shaffer	director	290 HEALTHWEST DRIVE, SUITE 2, DOTHAN AL 36303
Suntx Capital Partners Ii Lp	director, 10 percent owner	TWO LINCOLN CENTRE, 5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
Suntx Capital Partners Ii Dutch Investors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	TWO LINCOLN CENTRE, 5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75240
Suntx Cpi Expansion Fund Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75214
Gregory A Hoffman	officer: Senior VP, Finance	290 HEALTHWEST DRIVE, SUITE 2, DOTHAN AL 36303
Judson Ryan Brooks	officer: Senior Vice President, Legal	290 HEALTHWEST DRIVE, SUITE 2, DOTHAN AL 36303
Charles E Owens	director, officer: See Remarks	290 HEALTHWEST DRIVE, SUITE 2, DOTHAN AL 36303