The RMR Group (The RMR Group) Predictability Rank

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What is The RMR Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The RMR Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The RMR Group (The RMR Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » The RMR Group Inc (NAS:RMR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RMR:Mexico 26R:Germany 26R:Germany

Address

255 Washington Street, Suite 300, Two Newton Place, Newton, MA, USA, 02458-1634

Website

https://www.rmrgroup.com

The RMR Group Inc is a holding company that conducts its business through its subsidiary, which is an alternative asset management company that invests in real estate and manages real estate-related businesses. Its business consists of providing management services to publicly owned real estate investment trusts, or REITs, and real estate-related operating companies. It also provides management services to real estate securities mutual funds and commercial real estate finance companies. The company's operating segment is RMR LLC and All Other Operations. The RMR Group derives its revenue from providing business and property management services as well as advisory and other services.

Executives

Christopher J. Bilotto	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Jennifer F. Mintzer	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Jonathan Veitch	director	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Jonathan Pertchik	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC., 24601 CENTER RIDGE ROAD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Andrew J Rebholz	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA LLC, 400 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Rosen Plevneliev	director	THE RMR GROUP INC., TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Frederick N Zeytoonjian	director	C/O REIT MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Watkins Walter C. Jr.	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP INC., TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Ann Logan	director	C/O PHH CORPORATION, 3000 LEADENHALL RD, MOUNT LAUREL NJ 08054
John G. Murray	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Thomas M O'brien	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
David M Blackman	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Mackey Bruce J Jr	officer: Exec. VP of The RMR Group LLC	C/O FIVE STAR QUALITY CARE, INC., 400 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Matthew P. Jordan	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O THE RMR GROUP INC., TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Senior Housing Properties Trust	10 percent owner	C/O THE RMR GROUP, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458