What is Ryman Hospitality Properties Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ryman Hospitality Properties Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ryman Hospitality Properties (Ryman Hospitality Properties) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One Gaylord Drive, Nashville, TN, USA, 37214
Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc is a lodging and hospitality real estate investment trust that specializes in upscale convention center resorts and country music entertainment experiences. Its core holdings are Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center; Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center; Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center; Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center; and Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center. The company has three business segments: Hospitality, which includes Gaylord Hotels properties, the Inn at Opryland, and the AC Hotel, Entertainment which includes the entertainment and media assets comprising OEG, and Corporate and Other, which includes corporate expenses. It derives the vast majority of its revenue from its hospitality segment.
Executives
| Patrick S Chaffin |
officer: EVP & COO |
ONE GAYLORD DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
| Reed Colin V |
director, officer: Exec. Chairman of the Board |
|
| Fazal F Merchant |
director |
2230 E. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Bowles Alvin L Jr |
director |
62 TRENOR DRIVE, NEW ROCHELLE NY 10804 |
| William E Haslam |
director |
5919 MAPLE AVE, C/O HAROLDS STORES INC, DALLAS TX 75235 |
| Rachna Bhasin |
director |
1855 GRIFFIN ROAD, B454, DANIA BEACH FL 33004 |
| Jennifer L Hutcheson |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
ONE GAYLORD DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
| Scott J Lynn |
officer: EVP, Secretary and GC |
ONE GAYLORD DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
| Christine Pantoya |
director |
5 OX BOW LANE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Mark Fioravanti |
director, officer: President & CEO |
ONE GAYLORD DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
| Prather Robert S Jr |
director |
|
| Michael Isor Roth |
director |
THE INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC., 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Christian A. Brickman |
director |
351 PHELPS DRIVE, IRVING TX 75038 |
| Bennett D Westbrook |
officer: SVP, Investments, D&C |
ONE GAYLORD DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
| Michael J Bender |
director |
3980 BAUGHMAN GRANT ROAD, NEW ALBANY OH 43054 |
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