Resolute Forest Products (Resolute Forest Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Resolute Forest Products Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Resolute Forest Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Resolute Forest Products (Resolute Forest Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Resolute Forest Products Inc (NYSE:RFP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1010 De La Gauchetiere Street West, Suite 400, Montreal, QC, CAN, H3B 2N2

Website

https://www.resolutefp.com

Resolute Forest Products Inc is engaged in the forest products industry with a range of products, including market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint, and specialty papers. The product range includes market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint and specialty papers which are marketed to nearly 50 countries. The company owns or operates pulp, paper, tissue and wood products facilities in the United States and Canada.

Executives

Patrice Minguez	officer: President, Tissue Group	C/O RESOLUTE FOREST PRODUCTS INC., 111 DUKE STREET, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Hugues Simon	officer: President, Wood products	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Sylvain A. Girard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Duncan Davies	director	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Stephanie Leclaire	officer: Chief Legal Officer	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Daniel Viboux	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Suzanne Blanchet	director	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA BOULEVARD, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Michael S Rousseau	director	C/O ABITIBIBOWATER INC., 1155 METCALFE STREET, SUITE 800, MONTREAL, QUEBEC Z4 H3B 5H2
Alain Rheaume	director	C/O ABITIBIBOWATER INC., 1155 METCALFE STREET, SUITE 800, MONTREAL, QUEBEC Z4 H3B 5H2
Lori Kilgour	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C2M1
Daniel Ouellet	officer: SVP Human Resources	111 ROBERT-BOURASSA BOULEVARD, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Richard Joseph Tremblay	officer: SVP, Pulp and Paper Operations	C/O RESOLUTE FOREST PRODUCTS INC., 111 DUKE STREET, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
John Lafave	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ABITIBIBOWATER INC., 1155 METCALFE STREET, SUITE 800, MONTREAL A8 H3B 5H2
Randall C Benson	director	RESOLUTE FOREST PRODUCTS INC., 111 DUKE STREET, SUITE 5000, MONTREAL A8 H3C 2M1
Bradley Martin	director	C/O ODYSSEY RE HOLDINGS CORP., 300 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902