What is REX American Resources Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
REX American Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
REX American Resources (REX American Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7720 Paragon Road, Dayton, OH, USA, 45459
REX American Resources Corp operates as a holding company, which engages in investment in alternative energy and ethanol production entities. Its operating segments include Ethanol and By-Products. Its products include dried distillers grains, modified distillers grains, and non-food grade corn oil.
Executives
| Douglas Bruggeman |
officer: CFO, VP-Finance, Treasurer |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Cheryl Lea Bustos |
director |
43 SUGARCREEK TRAIL, GALENA IL 61036 |
| Stuart A Rose |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB; CEO |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Mervyn L Alphonso |
director |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Anne Macmillan |
director |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Lawrence Tomchin |
director |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Zafar A Rizvi |
officer: VP Loss Prevention |
7720 PARAGON ROAD, DAYTON OH 45459 |
| Edward M Kress |
director, officer: Secretary |
6505 LANDSEND COURT, DAYTON OH 45414 |
| J. Dennis Hastert |
director |
20 S. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| David Fuchs |
officer: VP Mgmt Information Systems |
1366 HOLLOWCREEK DRIVE, MIAMISBURG OH 45342 |
| Keith B Magby |
officer: VP Operations |
1947 FOUNTAINVIEW DRIVE, DAYTON OH 45414 |
| David L Bearden |
officer: President;COO |
1517 WOODS DRIVE - UNIT 209, ARLINGTON HEIGHTS IL 60004 |
| Philip J Kellar |
officer: VP Store Operations |
P O BOX 6592, KINGSPORT TN 37663 |
| Lee Fisher |
director |
3605 WARRENSVILLE CENTER ROAD, SHAKER HEIGHTS OH 44122 |
| David Harris |
director |
237 PARK AVENUE - SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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