Rent the Runway (Rent the Runway) Predictability Rank

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What is Rent the Runway Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rent the Runway Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rent the Runway (Rent the Runway) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Rent the Runway Inc (NAS:RENT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 Jay Street, Brooklyn, NY, USA, 11201

Website

https://www.renttherunway.com

Rent the Runway Inc is an e-commerce platform that allows users to rent, subscribe, or buy designer apparel and accessories.

Executives

Jennifer Hyman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	767 FIFTH AVENUE, C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Cara Schembri	officer: GC & Secretary	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Brian Donato	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Siddharth Thacker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Andrew Rau	officer: SVP, Supply Chain & Inventory	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Sarah K Tam	officer: Chief Merchant Officer	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Anushka Salinas	officer: President & COO	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Becky Case	officer: SVP, Engineering	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Larry Steinberg	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1000 WINDWARD CONCOURSE, SUITE 250, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Emil Michael	director	C/O DPCM CAPITAL, INC., 382 NE 191 STREET, # 24148, MIAMI FL 33179
Scarlett O'sullivan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	225 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Andrea Alexander	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O RENT THE RUNWAY, INC., 10 JAY STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Carley Roney	director	C/O XO GROUP INC., 195 BROADWAY, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Beth J Kaplan	director	1716 LOCUST STREET, DES MOINES IA 50309
Timothy E Bixby	director	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118