Regency Centers (Regency Centers) Predictability Rank

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What is Regency Centers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regency Centers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Regency Centers Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Regency Centers (Regency Centers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Regency Centers Corp (NAS:REG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RRC:Germany R1EG34:Brazil

Address

One Independent Drive, Suite 114, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32202-5019

Website

https://www.regencycenters.com

Regency Centers is the largest shopping center-focused retail REIT. The company's portfolio includes an interest in 480 properties, which includes nearly 57 million square feet of retail space following the completion of the Urstadt Biddle acquisition in August 2023. The portfolio is geographically diversified with 22 regional offices and no single market representing more than 14% of total company net operating income. Regency's retail portfolio is primarily composed of grocery-anchored centers, with 80% of properties featuring a grocery anchor and grocery stores representing 20% of annual base rent.

Executives

Stein Martin E Jr	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	ONE INDEPENDENT DRIVE, SUITE 114, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Alan Todd Roth	officer: Managing Director	1919 GALLOWS ROAD SUITE 1000, VIENNA VA 22182
Michael J Mas	officer: EVP and CFO	2764 SHADE TREE DRIVE, FLEMING ISLAND FL 32003
Nicholas Andrew Wibbenmeyer	officer: EVP, W. Regional Pres.	1211 W 22ND STREET SUITE 300, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Deirdre Evens	director	10 STILLMEADOW WAY, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Simmons James H. Iii	director	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas W Furphy	director	C/O REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION, 1 INDEPENDENT DRIVE, SUITE 1300, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Bryce Blair	director
David P Oconnor	director	C/O HIGH RISE, 325 NORTH AVENUE E, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Karin Klein	director	C/O PARAMOUNT GROUP, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019
Peter Linneman	director	1696 N E MIAMI GARDENS DR, N MIAMI BEACH FL 33179
Kristin Ann Campbell	director	500 STAPLES DRIVE, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Terah L Devereaux	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	ONE INDEPENDENT DRIVE, SUITE 114, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Lisa Palmer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION, ONE INDEPENDENT DR., SUITE 114, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Thomas G Wattles	director	ONE INDEPENDENT DRIVE, SUITE 114, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202