Redwire (Redwire) Predictability Rank

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What is Redwire Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Redwire Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Redwire (Redwire) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Redwire Corp (NYSE:RDW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8226 Philips Highway, Suite 101, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32256

Website

https://www.redwirespace.com

Redwire Corp is engaged in mission-critical space solutions and reliable components for the next generation space economy, with IP for solar power generation and in-space 3D printing and manufacturing. It assists its customers in solving the complex challenges of future space missions. Its operating units are organized into broad business areas focusing on space commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, advanced sensors and components, and space domain awareness and resiliency.

Executives

Chris Edmunds	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O REDWIRE CORPORATION, 8226 PHILIPS HIGHWAY, SUITE 101, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Jonathan Baliff	director, officer: President and CFO	211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
M. David Kornblatt	director	1214 ROUND HILL ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Leslie B Daniels	director	540 MADISON, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John S Bolton	director	GENESIS PARK HOLDINGS, 2000 EDWARDS STREET, SUITE B, HOUSTON TX 77007
Michael J Bevacqua	director	SANKATY ADVISORS, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Credit Member, Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bcc Redwire Aggregator, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Ae Industrial Partners Structured Solutions I Gp, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Industrial Partners Structured Solutions I, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Michael Robert Greene	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Red Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Andrew Rush	officer: President and COO	REDWIRE CORPORATION, 8226 PHILIPS HIGHWAY, SUITE 101, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Aeroequity Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431