Arcus Biosciences (Arcus Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Arcus Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcus Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arcus Biosciences (Arcus Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Arcus Biosciences Inc (NYSE:RCUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3928 Point Eden Way, Hayward, CA, USA, 94545

Website

https://www.arcusbio.com

Arcus Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It develops immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. The company focuses on an ATP-adenosine pathway, which is a key driver of immunosuppression in the tumor microenvironment to create and optimize differentiated small-molecule immuno-oncology product candidates. Its product pipeline includes Domvanalimab, Etrumadenant, AB680, and Zimberelimab. Arcus conducts clinical trials for different types of cancers such as Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Pancreatic, and others. The company operates through the single segment being the business of developing and commercializing immunotherapies.

Executives

Goeltz Ii Robert C.	officer: Chief Financial Officer	343 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 100, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Juan C. Jaen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	850 MAUDE AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Jennifer Jarrett	officer: See Remarks	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Alexander Azoy	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	30699 RUSSELL RANCH ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Gilead Sciences Inc	10 percent owner	333 LAKESIDE DR, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Terry J Rosen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TULARK INC, TWO CORP DRIVE S, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Carolyn C. Tang	officer: General Counsel	3928 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545
Dimitry Sa Nuyten	officer: Chief Medical Officer	740 HEINZ AVENUE, C/O ADURO BIOTECH, INC., BERKELEY CA 94710
Linda Slanec Higgins	director	3610 LOUIS RD., PALO ALTO CA 94303
Nicole Lambert	director	322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
William Grossman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BELLICUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2130 W. HOLCOMBE BLVD., STE. 800, HOUSTON TX 77030
Yasunori Kaneko	director, 10 percent owner	509 ROEHAMPTON, HILLS BOROUGH CA 94010
Kathryn E Falberg	director	C/O AXOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael Quigley	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Andrew J Perlman	director	618 MIRADA AVE, STANFORD CA 94305