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Rebus Hldgs (Rebus Hldgs) Predictability Rank


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What is Rebus Hldgs Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rebus Hldgs Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rebus Hldgs Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rebus Hldgs (Rebus Hldgs) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Rebus Hldgs Inc (OTCPK:RBSH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
KRBP CNBX EVFM MYMX HGEN INFIQ RSPI PPCB CALA QBIO OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA HKSE:02269 XBRU:ARGX BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2629 Townsgate Road, Suite 215, Westlake Village, CA, USA, 91361
Website
http://www.rebus-corp.com
Rebus Hldgs Inc is an early-stage, pre-revenue, pharmaceutical company that is focused on the development of prodrug cancer therapeutics for the treatment of disease. The company along with its subsidiaries is engaged in the production of small-molecule adenosine receptor modulators. Adenosine is an extracellular signaling molecule that regulates multiple aspects of tissue function and specifically plays a role in immunity and inflammation.
Executives
John Robison Montgomery director 7647 BIRCHWOOD HILL RD, CROZET VA 22932
Richard E Buller director C/O CELCUITY INC., 16305 36TH AVE. N., #100, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55446
Claire Thom director 31200 VIA COLINAS, #200, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Ronald L Shazer officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 8910 UNIVERSITY CENTER LANE, STE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Christopher P. Lowe director, officer: President and CEO 2511 N LOOP 1604,, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Scott Varde Ogilvie director 10880 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 950, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Bo Jesper Hansen director BIRKENWEG 16, MEGGEN V8 6045
Peter E Grebow director 41 MOORES ROAD, FRAZER PA 19355
Craig A Dionne director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO,CFO, President 9901 IH 10 WEST, SUITE 800, SAN ANTONIO TX 78230
Russell Richerson 10 percent owner, officer: COO, Secretary 2511 N LOOP 1604 W, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Kihong Kwon 10 percent owner 1015 E. CHAPMAN AVE, SUITE 201, FULLERTON CA 92831