Rave Restaurant Group (Rave Restaurant Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Rave Restaurant Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rave Restaurant Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Rave Restaurant Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rave Restaurant Group (Rave Restaurant Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Rave Restaurant Group Inc (NAS:RAVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3551 Plano Parkway, The Colony, TX, USA, 75056

Website

https://www.raverg.com

Rave Restaurant Group Inc operates and franchises pizza buffet, delivery/carry-out, and express restaurants. It operates restaurants under the brand name, Pizza Inn, and Pie Five Pizza Company. It has three operating segments. The Pizza Inn and Pie Five Franchising segments establish franchisees, licensees, and territorial rights. The company-owned restaurant segment includes sales and operating results for all company-owned restaurants. The Pizza Inn Franchising segment accounts for the company's revenue. Geographically, it generates the majority of the revenue from the United States.

Executives

Hallmark Insurance Co	other: See Note 1	777 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Hallmark Specialty Insurance Co	other: See Note 1	777 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102
American Hallmark Insurance Co Of Texas	other: See Explanation	777 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Brandon Solano	officer: Chief Executive Officer	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Mark E Schwarz	director, 10 percent owner	5420 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240
Clinton Dayne Fendley	officer: Vice President - Finance	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Burns Michael F Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Andrea K. Allen	officer: Chief Acctg. & Admin. Officer	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Robert W. Bafundo	officer: President	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Scott Crane	officer: President & CEO	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Brian Timothy Bares	director	12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE R-230, AUSTIN TX 78738
Timothy E Mullany	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Hammett William C Jr	director	CAMPBELL CENTRE, 8350 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY STE 1900, DALLAS TX 75206
Randall E. Gier	officer: President & CEO	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Clinton J Coleman	director	C/O NEWCASTLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201