Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical) Predictability Rank

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What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (NAS:RARE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RARE:Mexico UP0:Germany

Address

60 Leveroni Court, Novato, CA, USA, 94949

Website

https://www.ultragenyx.com

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc is a USA-based biopharmaceutical company. It identifies, acquires, develops, and commercializes novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare diseases, with a focus on serious, debilitating genetic diseases. The company's medicine portfolio includes Crysvita, Dojolvi, and Mepsevii. Crysvita is indicated for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia (XLH) in adult and pediatric patients 1 year of age and older. Mepsevii is indicated in pediatric and adult patients for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII.

Executives

Emil D Kakkis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Thomas Richard Kassberg	officer: CBO & Senior Vice President	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Howard Horn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Theodore Alan Huizenga	officer: Controller and PAO	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Erik Harris	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Sanders Corazon (corsee) D.	director	C/O MOLECULAR TEMPLATES, INC., 9301 AMBERGLEN BLVD, SUITE 100, AUSTIN VI 78729
John Richard Pinion	officer: See Remarks	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Karah Herdman Parschauer	officer: EVP and General Counsel	60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Eric Crombez	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Dennis Karl Huang	officer: SVP and Chief Tech Ops Officer	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Camille L Bedrosian	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Mardi Dier	officer: CFO & Executive Vice President	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON RD., AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Amrit Ray	director	60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
William Aliski	director	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Shalini Sharp	officer: CFO & Senior Vice President	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949