What is Rain Oncology Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Rain Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Rain Oncology (Rain Oncology) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8000 Jarvis Avenue, Suite 204, Newark, CA, USA, 94560
Rain Oncology Inc is a late-stage precision oncology company developing therapies that target oncogenic drivers for which it is able to genetically select patients it believes will likely benefit. This approach includes using a tumor-agnostic approach to select patients based on their tumors' underlying genetics rather than histology. The company's product candidate, milademetan, is a small molecule, oral inhibitor of MDM2, which is oncogenic in numerous cancers. In addition to milademetan, the company is also developing a preclinical program that is focused on inducing synthetic lethality in cancer cells by inhibiting RAD52.
Executives
| Kevin C Tang |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Josephine Bruce |
officer: Principal Fin. & Acc. Officer |
8000 JARVIS AVENUE, SUITE 204, NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Tang Capital Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Tang Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Boxer Capital, Llc |
other: See remarks. |
12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Boxer Asset Management Inc. |
other: See remarks |
CAY HOUSE, EP TAYLOR DRIVE N7776, LYFORD CAY, NEW PROVIDENCE C5 00000 |
| Joseph Lewis |
other: See remarks. |
PO BOX N7776, LYFORD BAHAMAS |
| Aaron I. Davis |
director |
12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Erik Atkisson |
officer: General Counsel and CCO |
C/O EIGER BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2155 PARK BLVD., PALO ALTO CA 94306 |
| Franklin M Berger |
director |
1000 MARINA BLVD, STE 200, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Biotechnology Value Fund L P |
other: See Explanation of Responses |
44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Avanish Vellanki |
director, officer: President and CEO |
8000 JARVIS AVENUE, SUITE 204, NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Cormorant Asset Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Gorjan Hrustanovic |
director |
C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
RAIN has been successfully added to your