What is QS Energy Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
QS Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
QS Energy (QS Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
23902 FM 2978, Unit No. 1, Tomball, TX, USA, 77375
QS Energy Inc develops and commercializes energy efficiency technologies that assist in increased global energy demands, improvement in the economics of oil extraction and transport, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Its primary technology is Applied Oil Technology (AOT), which is a commercial-grade crude oil pipeline transportation flow assurance product. The company's oil and gas market is segmented into three primary categories namely Upstream Producers, Midstream Transporters, and Downstream Refiners. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas. Midstream companies transport oil and gas to markets via pipelines, rail, and shipping and provide storage in the field and the Downstream sector refines oil and gas into finished products.
Executives
| Eric Bunting |
director |
10701 FORESTGATE, WICHITA KS 67206 |
| Gary M Buchler |
director |
2544 RAMROCK DR., PORTER TX 77365 |
| William Howard Green |
director |
3721 REDMONT TERRACE, EDMOND OK 73034 |
| Richard William Munn |
director |
15 CAMELOT OAKS CT., THE WOODLANDS TX 77382 |
| Michael Scott Mcmullen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
PO BOX 1045, TIBURON CA 94920 |
| Jason B Lane |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
23902 RM 2978, TUMBALL TX 77375 |
| Thomas A. Bundros |
director |
735 STATE STREET, #500, SANTA BARBARA CA 93101 |
| Don Dickson |
director |
5266 HOLLISTER AVENUE, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111 |
| Mark Stubbs |
director |
136 W. CANON PERDIDO STREET, STE. A, SANTA BARBARA CA 93427 |
| Ryan K Zinke |
director |
409 W 2ND STREET, WHITEFISH MT 59932 |
| Greggory M Bigger |
officer: CFO |
5266 HOLLISTER AVENUE, SUITE 219, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111 |
| Eugene E Eichler |
officer: Interim CFO |
735 STATE ST. #500, SANTA BARBARA CA 93101 |
| Charles Blum |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1505 UPLAND HILLS DRIVE NORTH, UPLAND CA 91784 |
| Cecil Bond Kyte |
director |
5125 LANKERSHIM BOULEVARD, NORTH HOLLYWOOD CA 91601 |
| John F Price |
director |
5125 LANKERSHIM BOULEVARD, NORTH HOLLYWOOD CA 91601 |
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