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QuantGate Systems (QuantGate Systems) Predictability Rank


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What is QuantGate Systems Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

QuantGate Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

QuantGate Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of QuantGate Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

QuantGate Systems (QuantGate Systems) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » QuantGate Systems Inc (OTCPK:QGSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LZGI BMTX NXPL MRT AWRE IDN DUOT LGIQ NTWK MVLA CRM XTER:SAP INTU NOW UBER CDNS SHOP WDAY XPAR:DSY ROP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
99 Wall Street, Suite 1701, New York, NY, USA, 10005
Website
https://www.quantgatesystems.com
QuantGate Systems Inc is a Fintech company, developing Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and big-data processing algorithms and analytics to deliver SaaS solutions and seamless API integration. Pilot Trading is a wholly owned subsidiary of the company. Its core intelligence identifies investment opportunities across multiple asset classes, rooted in the financial markets, and for cryptocurrency exchanges, enabling valued clients to make better informed investment decisions. Turnkey solutions and efficient API's, founded on robust and scalable SaaS architecture, allow third party integration for onboarding existing users, and scaling globally.
Executives
Jack J. Bensimon officer: Chief Executive Officer 34 KING ST. E. SUITE 1010, TORONTO A6 M5C 2X8
Ontario 1476448 10 percent owner 1927 SHELLARD ROAD, CAMBRIDGE A6 N1R 5S7
Murray Simser officer: CEO and President C/O MOBILE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS, INC., 25 ADELAIDE STREET EAST, SUITE 502, TORONTO A6 M5C 3A1
Benjamin Chesir other: Former Director ONE NORTH END AVENUE, WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10282
Richard Schaeffer other: Former Director C/O LIQUID HOLDINGS GROUP, INC., 800 THIRD AVE., 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Emlyn David director, officer: Chief Executive Officer SUITE 502, 25 ADELAIDE STREET, TORONTO A6 M5C 3A1
James Mcgovern other: Former Director C/O LOTO INC., 25 ADELAIDE STREET EAST, 502, TORONTO A6 M5C 3A1
Fulvio Ciano officer: President and CTO 142 BANFF RD., TORONTO A6 M4P 2P7
Todd Halpern director C/O LOTO INC., 25 ADELAIDE STREET EAST, 502, TORONTO A6 M5C 3A1
2238646 Ontario Inc. 10 percent owner 23 BEDFORD ROAD, TORONTO A6 M5R 2J9
Alan Ralph director 48 ROYAL HENLEY BLVD., ST. CATHARINES A6 L2N4S1
J Trevor Eyton director PO BOX 723040, ATLANTA GA 30339
Baker A. Stephen officer: Chief Technology Officer 2361 SOUTHCOTT ROAD, PICKERING A6 L1X 2T3
Jason Randall Barrs director 23 BEDFORD ROAD, TORONTO A6 M5R 2J9
Donald Ziraldo director 15468 NIAGARA PARKWAY, NIAGARA ON THE LAKE A6 L0S 1J0