Poseida Therapeutics (Poseida Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Poseida Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Poseida Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Poseida Therapeutics (Poseida Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Poseida Therapeutics Inc (NAS:PSTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2RZ:Germany

Address

9390 Towne Centre Drive, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.poseida.com

Poseida Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on leveraging non-viral gene engineering technologies to create life-saving therapeutics for patients with a high unmet medical need. It has built a pipeline of autologous and allogeneic chimeric antigen receptor T cell, or CAR-T, product candidates, initially focused on the treatment of hematological malignancies and solid tumours.

Executives

John P. Schmid	director	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Luke Corning	director	614 DAVIS STREET, EVANSTON IL 60201
Marcea Bland Lloyd	director	9360 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Charles M Baum	director	C/O MIRATI THERAPEUTICS INC., 9393 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cynthia Collins	director	65 WEST WATKINS MILL ROAD, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Rafael Amado	director	210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Kristin Yarema	officer: President, Cell Therapy	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Malin Life Sciences Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	2 HARBOUR SQUARE, CROFTON ROAD, DUN LAOGHAIRE, CO, DUBLIN L2 ----
Eric Ostertag	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4242 CAMPUS POINT COURT, SUITE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Kerry D. Ingalls	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 9390 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brent Warner	officer: President, Gene Therapy	C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 9390 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Matthew A. Spear	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4242 CAMPUS POINT COURT, SUITE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Harry J Leonhardt	officer: GC & Chief Compliance Officer	C/O HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11388 SORRENTO VALLEY BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David Hirsch	director	C/O LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sean Murphy	director, 10 percent owner	C/O NOVAN, INC., 4222 EMPEROR BOULEVAND, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703