Party City Holdco (Party City Holdco) Predictability Rank

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What is Party City Holdco Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Party City Holdco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Party City Holdco (Party City Holdco) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Party City Holdco Inc (OTCPK:PRTYQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

80 Grasslands Road, Elmsford, NY, USA, 10523

Website

https://www.partycity.com

Party City Holdco Inc is a party goods retailer in North America that operates owned and franchised locations in the us, Canada, and Puerto Rico. Party City also sells internationally in countries like the UK, France, Germany, and Australia, among others. The company has two primary reporting segments: retail and wholesale. The retail operations sell through Anagram, Amscan, Designware, Costumes USA, and other party suppliers, such as Party City, Halloween City, and PartyCity.com. The wholesale segment sells party goods such as paper and plastic tableware, accessories and novelties, balloons, stationery, and gift items for all occasions. These products are sold by franchise stores, mass merchants, independent card and gift shops, dollar stores, and other retailers and global distributors.

Executives

Clifford Sosin	10 percent owner	8 WRIGHT STREET, 1ST FL, WESTPORT CT 06880
John Capela	officer: See Remarks	779 HIGHLAND AVENUE, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Peter Royer Smith	officer: Chief Operations Officer	3438 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30326
De Mesa Graziano Cheryl	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Steven J Collins	director	29 VINTON STREET, #5, BOSTON MA 02127
William S. Creekmuir	director	SIX CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 3300-A, ATLANTA GA 30328
John Frascotti	director	C/O HASBRO, INC. 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02862
Shroff Michelle Millstone	director	C/O PARTY CITY HOLDCO INC., 80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
James M Harrison	director	GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD ST, NEW YORK NY 10004
Reginald Rasch	officer: See Remarks	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Sean Thompson	officer: See Remarks	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Sarah Dodds-brown	director	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Jennifer Fleiss	director	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Joel Alsfine	director	2905 PREMIERE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Norman S Matthews	director	650 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022