GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Papaya Growth Opportunity Corp I (NAS:PPYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Papaya Growth Opportunity I (Papaya Growth Opportunity I) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Papaya Growth Opportunity I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Papaya Growth Opportunity I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Papaya Growth Opportunity I Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Papaya Growth Opportunity I's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Papaya Growth Opportunity I (Papaya Growth Opportunity I) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Papaya Growth Opportunity Corp I (NAS:PPYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MCAA NFYS KVAC RCFA CFFS PHYT ISRL XPDB PRPC BRKH PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2201 Broadway, Suite 750, Oakland, CA, USA, 94612
Website
https://www.papayagrowth.com
Papaya Growth Opportunity Corp I is a blank check company.
Executives
Alberta Investment Management Corp 10 percent owner 1600-10250 101 STREET NW, EDMONTON A0 T5J 3P4
Neil B Herceg director 2201 BROADWAY, #705, OAKLAND CA 94612
Daniel A Murillo director 2201 BROADWAY, #705, OAKLAND CA 94612
Timothy J Schenk director 2201 BROADWAY, #705, OAKLAND CA 94612
Alex Spiro officer: President 25 TUDOR CITY PLACE APT 1011, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dave Yarnold director C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Patricia Nakache director 325 SHARON PARK DR., #458, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Diana A Sklar director 2 ROUSSEAU STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94112
Clay Whitehead director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O PLUM ACQUISITION CORP. I, 339 SEAVIEW AVE, PIEDMONT CA 94610
Daniel C Rogers officer: CFO and Secretary 2201 BROADWAY; SUITE 705, OAKLAND CA 94612
Papaya Growth Opportunity I Sponsor, Llc 10 percent owner 2201 BROADWAY, SUITE 750, OAKLAND CA 94612
Patrick Pohlen director C/O MNTN DIGITAL, INC., 201 W. 5TH STREET, 11TH FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78701

Papaya Growth Opportunity I (Papaya Growth Opportunity I) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Papaya Growth Opportunity Corp. I Announces the Separate Trading of its Class A Common Stock and Warrants, Commencing March 4, 2022

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews • 03-01-2022

Papaya Growth Opportunity Corp. I Announces Closing of $287.5 Million Initial Public Offering

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews • 01-19-2022