PLBY Group (PLBY Group) Predictability Rank

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What is PLBY Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PLBY Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PLBY Group (PLBY Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » PLBY Group Inc (NAS:PLBY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10960 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 2200, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90024

Website

https://www.plbygroup.com

PLBY Group, Inc. ("PLBY Group") connects consumers around the world with products, services, and experiences to help them look good, feel good, and have fun. PLBY Group serves consumers in four major categories: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming PLBY Group's flagship consumer brand, Playboy, is one of the most recognizable, iconic brands in the world, driving more than $3 billion in global consumer spend annually across 180 countries.

Executives

Kohn Bernhard L Iii	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O PLBY GROUP, INC., 10960 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 2200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Florus Beuting	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PLBY GROUP, INC., 10960 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 2200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Christopher Riley	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	8800 WEST SUNSET BOULEVARD, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Lance Barton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10960 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 2200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Marc Crossman	officer: CFO & COO	162 RIDGEWOOD AVENUE, GLEN RIDGE NJ 07028
Suhail Rizvi	director, 10 percent owner	575 MADISON AVE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John Giampetroni	10 percent owner	260 EAST BROWN STREET, SUITE 380, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Juliana F Hill	director
Tracey E Edmonds	director	C/O PLBY GROUP, INC., 10960 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 2200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Rizvi Opportunistic Equity Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	260 EAST BROWN STREET, SUITE 380, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Rizvi Traverse Gp Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	801 NORTHPOINT PARKWAY, SUITE 129, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33407
Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund Lp	10 percent owner	C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Investment Group Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fig Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Operating Entity I Lp	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105