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Patriot Gold (Patriot Gold) Predictability Rank


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What is Patriot Gold Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Patriot Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Patriot Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Patriot Gold (Patriot Gold) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Patriot Gold Corp (OTCPK:PGOL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GRMC RYES JUPGF AGDXF GLNS STAL IMII TLRS AUST MNGG NEM SHSE:601899 TSX:ABX TSX:AEM TSX:WPM TSX:FNV MIC:PLZL JSE:GFI SHSE:600547 ASX:NST
Traded in Other Exchanges
PGOL:Canada
Address
401 Ryland Street, Suite 180, Reno, NV, USA, 89502
Website
http://www.patriotgoldcorp.com
Patriot Gold Corp is a natural resource exploration and mining company, engaged in acquiring, exploring, and developing natural resource properties in Nevada. The company principally focuses on the gold sector. The group's portfolio consists of a number of projects, including the Moss Mine Royalty, the Vernal Gold Project, the Windy Peak Gold Project, and the Rainbow Mountain Gold Project.
Executives
Ron Daems 10 percent owner 3651 LINDELL ROAD, SUITE D165, LAS VEGAS NV 89103
Robert Coale director PO BOX 1391, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Zachary Jerome Black director 4190 SUNSTONE DRIVE, BOZEMAN MT 59718
Trevor B Newton director, 10 percent owner 3651 LINDELL ROAD, SUITE D165, LAS VEGAS NV 89103
Robert C. Kopple 10 percent owner 10866 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1500, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Herb Duerr director, officer: Pres. CEO Sec. Treas. 12790 ROSEVIEW LANE, RENO NV 89511
Jared Beebe director 18 RUE LEGAULT, ILE-BIZARD A8 H9E 1E9
Ronald Blomkamp 10 percent owner
Duncan Budge director 4556 MARINEVIEW CRESCENT, NORTH VANCOUVER A1 V7R 3P2
Robert Sibthorpe director 3851 MARGUERLTE STREET, VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA V6J A1 0000
Bruce Johnstone director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President, Secretary 102 DONAGHY AVENUE, NORTH VANCOUVER BC A1 00000