Progyny (Progyny) Predictability Rank

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What is Progyny Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Progyny Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Progyny (Progyny) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Progyny Inc (NAS:PGNY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1359 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.progyny.com

Progyny Inc is a company engaged in specializing in fertility and family building benefits solutions. Its clients include employers across various industries. The fertility benefits solution consists of the treatment services (Smart Cycles), access to the Progyny network of high-quality fertility specialists that perform the Smart Cycle treatments and active management of the selective network of high-quality provider clinics.

Executives

David J Schlanger	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 1359 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael E Sturmer	officer: President	48 LEDYARD RD, WEST HARTFORD CT 06117
Mark S. Livingston	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 1359 BROADWAY, 2ND FL, NEW YORK NY 10018
Kevin K Gordon	director	155 S LIMERICK RD, LIMERICK PA 19468
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Peter Anevski	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 1359 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Cheryl Scott	director	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Norman Payson	director	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Allison Swartz	officer: EVP, GC	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 1359 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Lloyd H Dean	director	185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Monice Barbero	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 1359 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Beth C Seidenberg	director
Jennifer Bealer	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O PROGYNY, INC., 245 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Malissia Clinton	director	333 THREE D SYSTEMS CIRCLE, ROCK HILL SC 29730