What is PureCycle Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
PureCycle Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
PureCycle Technologies (PureCycle Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5950 Hazeltine National Drive, Suite 300, Orlando, FL, USA, 32822
PureCycle Technologies Inc holds a global license to commercialize the only patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, developed by The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G), for restoring waste polypropylene (PP) into a virgin-like resin. The proprietary process removes color, odor and other contaminants from recycled feedstock resulting in virgin-like polypropylene suitable for any PP market.
Executives
| Lawrence C Somma |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N.V., DELFTSEPLEIN 27E, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA |
| Steven F Bouck |
director |
C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS INC, 2260 DOUGLAS BLVD SUITE 280, ROSEVILLE CA 95661 |
| Fernando Musa |
director |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Daniel M Coombs |
director |
C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N.V., DELFTSEPLEIN 27E, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA |
| Dustin Olson |
officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Brad Kalter |
officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secretary |
800 2ND AVE S, ST PETERSBURG FL 33701 |
| John Stewart Scott |
director |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| David Warner Brenner |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Jeffrey Richard Fieler |
director |
10 MARKET STREET, PO BOX 687, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
| Sylebra Capital Ltd |
10 percent owner |
28 HENNESSY ROAD, 20TH FLOOR, WAN CHAI, HONG KONG K3 00000 |
| Timothy Glockner |
director |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Daniel Patrick Gibson |
10 percent owner |
400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109 |
| Michael Otworth |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Allen Jacoby |
director |
5950 HAZELTINE NATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 650, ORLANDO FL 32822 |
| Michael E Dee |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
118 VINTAGE PARK BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77070 |
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