Paya Holdings (Paya Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Paya Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Paya Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Paya Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Paya Holdings (Paya Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Paya Holdings Inc (NAS:PAYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

303 Perimeter Center N, Suite 600, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30346

Website

https://www.paya.com

Paya Holdings Inc is a provider of integrated payment and frictionless commerce solutions that help customers accept and make payments, expedite the receipt of money, and increase operating efficiencies. Its operating segment includes Integrated Solutions and Payment Services. The company generates maximum revenue from the Integrated Solutions segment. The Integrated Solutions segment represents the delivery of credit and debit card payment solutions, and to a lesser extent, ACH processing solutions to customers via integrations with software partners across strategic vertical markets. Integrated Solutions partners also include vertical-focused front-end Customer Relationship Management software providers as well as back-end Enterprise Resource Planning and accounting solutions.

Executives

Debora Boyda	director	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, ATLANTA GA 30346
Benjamin Nicolas Weiner	officer: See Remarks.	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30346
Balaji Devarasetty	officer: Chief Information Officer	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, ATLANTA GA 30346
Michele Shepard	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	303 PERIMETER CIRCLE NORTH, ATLANTA GA 30346
Sid Singh	director	1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30309
Oni Chukwu	director	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30346
Melinda Doster	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL & HHR	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30346
Eric Christopher Bell	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30346
Christine E Larsen	director	C/O FIRST DATA CORPORATION, FIRST DATA, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Betsy Z Cohen Trust Dated 10/7/99	other: Member of 10% owner group	1845 WALNUT STREET SUITE 1111, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Edward E Cohen Trust Dated 10/7/99	other: Member of 10% owner group	1845 WALNUT STREET SUITE 1111, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Foundation Arete	other: Member of 10% owner group	1845 WALNUT STREET SUITE 1111, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Betsy & Edward Cohen 2012 Grandchildren Trust Dated 5/22/2012	other: Member of 10% owner group	1845 WALNUT STREET SUITE 1111, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Gtcr Partners Xi/a&c Lp	director, 10 percent owner	300 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 5600, CHICAGO IL 60654
Gtcr Investment Xi Llc	director, 10 percent owner	300 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 5600, CHICAGO IL 60654