PAVmed (PAVmed) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is PAVmed Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PAVmed Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PAVmed Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PAVmed's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PAVmed (PAVmed) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » PAVmed Inc (NAS:PAVM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

360 Madison Avenue, 25th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

http://www.pavmed.com

PAVmed Inc is a multi-product, commercial-stage medical technology company organized to advance a broad pipeline of medical technologies from concept to commercialization. The Company operates in a single segment as a medical technology company, with the following lines of business: Diagnostics, Medical Devices, and Digital Health. Its products are EsoGuard and the Veris Cancer Care Platform.

Executives

Michael J Glennon	director	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170
Michael Adam Gordon	officer: General Counsel	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
Shaun O'neil	officer: Chief Operating Officer	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
James L Cox	director	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170
Debra White	director	C/O PAVMED INC., ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
Ronald M Sparks	director	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170
Brian J. Deguzman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170
Dennis M Mcgrath	officer: President & CFO	C/O PAVMED INC., ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, STE. 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
Lishan Aklog	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10171
Joan B Harvey	director	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
Timothy E Baxter	director	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165
Matthew Sirovich	10 percent owner	C/O SCOPIA MANAGEMENT INC, 450 SEVENTH AVENUE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10123
Ira Scott Greenspan	director	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
David S. Battleman	director	C/O TRUENORTH LIFESCIENCES, 348 WEST 57TH STREET, #226, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joshua R Lamstein	director	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170